Hydrogen has long played a key role in refining, ammonia, and chemical production, with UK demand ranging between 2,100 – 2,500 MW from 2020–2023 (European Hydrogen Observatory). However, consumption is now declining due to major industrial site closures:
🔻 CF Fertilisers UK shut down its Ince ammonia plant (2021) and partially closed Billingham (2023).
🔻 Tata Steel Port Talbot will close its blast furnaces in 2024.
🔻 INEOS Grangemouth Refinery, the UK’s third-largest, is set to close in 2025.
Historic Hydrogen Demand By Industry 2020-2023 | Source the Olsights Eye
With these changes, current demand may have dropped below 2,000 MW—but what comes next?
Future UK Hydrogen Demand Projections:
✅ CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget: 1,400 – 3,700 MW by 2030, mainly in Manufacturing & Electricity Supply.
✅ European Hydrogen Backbone Study: 3,110 MW by 2030, focused on Refining, High-Value Chemicals & Industrial Heat.
✅ NESO’s Future Energy Scenarios: 655 – 4,090 MW by 2030, with growth in Industrial, Shipping & Aviation sectors.
Future Hydrogen Demand Projections | Source the Olsights Eye
How can we track these shifts and identify emerging hydrogen offtakers?
Olsights Eye provides a comprehensive, data-driven approach to tracking hydrogen demand trends, industrial shifts, and emerging offtakers. By visualising historic and real-time hydrogen consumption across key industries, it helps monitor plant closures and their impact on regional demand, identifying areas where new infrastructure is needed. With interactive analytics, Olsights Eye assesses future offtakers by analysing sectoral demand shifts in industrial processes, shipping, and aviation, mapping hydrogen production sites, and evaluating infrastructure readiness, including pipelines and storage networks. It enables stakeholders to compare demand projections from NESO, the CCC, and the European Hydrogen Backbone Study against actual industry trends, helping to pinpoint investment opportunities and policy needs. By offering scenario modelling and regional forecasting, Olsights Eye supports strategic decision-making for businesses, policymakers, and investors, ensuring supply aligns with future demand. With Olsights Eye, you don’t just see where hydrogen demand has been—you can forecast where it’s going.
Want to see the full power of the Eye? Book a demo with us at hello@olsights.com.
