The UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7), released in February 2025, sets a legally binding limit on greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2038-2042. The target is ambitious: by 2040, UK emissions must be only a quarter of today’s levels. This signals a significant acceleration towards achieving net-zero by 2050 and reinforces the UK’s position as a leader in global climate action.
Key Features of the Seventh Carbon Budget & Comparisons to the Sixth Carbon Budget
1. Increased Ambition for Emission Reduction Targets
- CB7 mandates an 87% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, aligning with the UK’s commitment to reach net-zero by 2050. – 90% lower excluding emissions from international aviation and shipping
- The Sixth Carbon Budget (CB6) targeted a 78% reduction by 2035, while the CB7 escalates this to 87% by 2040, indicating heightened ambition.
2. Expanded Coverage – Inclusion of International Aviation and Shipping
- For the first time, CB7 includes emissions from international aviation and shipping in its targets and projections.
- These sectors were previously excluded in CB6, and other earlier carbon budgets, marking a significant policy update, with a more holistic approach to net-zero.
3. Greater Role of Electrification in Decarbonisation
- CB6 placed emphasis on the importance of the decarbonisation of the power sector but CB7 goes further, projecting that electrification (across various sectors, including transport, heating, and industry) and low-carbon electricity supply will account for the largest share of emissions reductions, contributing 60% by 2040
4. Increased Role of Consumers in the Net-Zero Transition
- CB7 envisions a greater role for consumers, with one-third of emissions reductions to rely on their choices, such as adopting EVs, heat pumps and dietary shifts), aligning well with NESO’s 2024 Future Energy Scenarios ‘Holistic Transition’ pathway.
- CB6 primarily relied on technological and systemic changes, with limited emphasis on individual actions.
Other Key Differences Between CB6 and CB7
- Pathways Focus: CB6 outlined five net-zero pathways (Balanced Net-Zero, Headwinds, Tailwinds, Widespread Engagement, Widespread Innovation), whereas CB7 focuses solely on the Balanced Net-Zero Pathway.
- Data Availability: CB6 provided emissions data for the UK and devolved regions (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), whereas CB7 only includes UK-wide data.
- Methodology Report: The CB7 methodology report is yet to be published and is expected on Wednesday, 21st May 2025.
Carbon Capture and Hydrogen: How Olsights Can Help
With CB7 reinforcing the importance of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and hydrogen (H₂) demand, Olsights’ tools provide the insights needed to navigate these evolving targets. Our CCS UK Emissions, Demand & Policy Dashboard and Hydrogen UK Demand & Policy Dashboard enable users to:
- Compare CCS demand per sector in the Balanced Net-Zero Pathway across CB6 and CB7, selecting specific years and scenarios.
- Analyse CCS demand as a time series, with options to filter by sector.
- View hydrogen demand trends and policies, with data available in multiple units for detailed analysis.
Both the CCUS and Hydrogen dashboards allow comparison between CB7 projections with other policies, such as NESO’s Future Energy Scenarios 2024.
The Road Ahead
CB7 represents a major leap forward in the UK’s climate policy, with increased ambition, broader coverage, and a greater reliance on consumer action. For businesses and policymakers navigating this transition, data-driven insights are crucial.
Olsights continues to support stakeholders with interactive dashboards and cutting-edge data visualisation tools, helping informed decisions in line with the UK’s net-zero targets.
